作者：董伊帆导读2026年被称为"中国可回收火箭量产元年"，预计十余款火箭同时冲刺可回收技术验证。截至2026年初，中国五家头部民营火箭企业蓝箭航天、中科宇航、天兵科技、星河动力、星际荣耀总估值突破千亿人民币。              Foreign tourists view a model of urban planning and construction at the Shanghai Urban Planning Exhibition Center on August 10, 2025. Photo: VCG
Editor's Note:
Chinese President Xi Jinping has pointed out, "to understand China today, one must learn to understand the Communist Party of China (CPC)." With the rapid development of China's economy and society, and the steady advancement of the Chinese path to modernization, the notable achievements of the CPC have drawn extensive international attention and scholarly interest. Against this backdrop, the Global Times has launched the "CPC in Global Eyes" column, focusing on the feelings, perspectives and insights of international friends from various fields regarding the CPC's historical path and achievements.
They include those who have toured China, who deeply study the CPC in academic fields, who work, live, study, seek employment or do business in various fields in China, and who pay close attention to the CPC's policies and trends, although they haven't visited the country in person. Through their vivid personal experiences, we aim to present a multifaceted overseas view of the CPC.
In the 16th installment of this series, we followed two Latin American scholars as they toured Chinese cities, witnessing how the CPC's people-centered, long-term development vision is translated into tangible everyday improvements - and reflecting on what China's experience might offer for state capacity building in Latin America.

Standing before the glass at the Shanghai Urban Planning Exhibition Center, Ecuadorian scholar María Imelda Robalino gently traced the edge of the giant city model with her fingertips, her eyes reflecting the orderly contours of this megacity stretching toward the horizon. The clear lines linking green spaces along the city's iconic Huangpu River, dense residential neighborhoods and industrial parks drew the public administration scholar, who has long studied urban expansion in Latin America, into deep thought.
Beside her, Mariana Escalante, a Mexican scholar in China studies, gazed at the scrolling timeline of Shanghai's long-term urban plans on a screen and expressed her admiration for the CPC and the Chinese government's all-out efforts in development and construction. "It's very impressive that they're taking care of all the factors that influence Chinese people, not just development and the economy, but also the environment and the well-being of the people," she told the Global Times at the exhibition center.
In June, a delegation of more than 20 think tank scholars from about 15 Latin American countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Ecuador, started their tour in China. Over the course of more than 10 days, they visited cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Nanjing, and went into urban planning exhibition centers, residential communities, Party schools, eco-friendly power plants and university think tanks. Robalino and Escalante were among them. Like many others in the group, they came with a shared purpose: to see for themselves what Chinese modernization under CPC leadership actually looks like.
"I always emphasize the importance of seeing and experiencing China with my own eyes, in addition to learning about it through documents, academic research or news reports," Escalante told the Global Times.
    Mariana Escalante visits an eco-friendly power company in Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu Province, on June 11, 2026. Photo: Courtesy of Escalante
From plans to everyday life
For Escalante, this trip to China was far from her first encounter with the country.
A professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico and founder of Mexican Association of Sinology, she has visited China many times before - yet each journey still brings fresh discoveries. "China is a country that changes at an impressive speed, so I try to visit as often as possible," she told the Global Times. "Every trip allows me to observe new processes, and compare what I study in texts with how policies are implemented."
Robalino approached her China visit with a broader set of expectations. Her institution, Ecuador's National Institute of Advanced Studies, has a Center for Chinese Studies, and this trip was meant to deepen existing academic ties. As a scholar of public policy and innovation, she also hoped to observe firsthand how China builds state capacity.
With different expectations, the delegation set off on a "dialogue" spanning mountains and seas. In Shanghai, the Latin American scholars visited the city's urban planning exhibition center and also stepped into one of its most local residential communities. If the former showed them how a metropolis is "planned" into being, the field visit to Block 228 Changbai New Village Subdistrict, or Changbai 228, revealed how planning is translated into everyday life - through the leadership and support of CPC organizations at every level.
On an afternoon in early June, the delegation stepped into Changbai 228 in Shanghai's Yangpu district. Since its completion in 1952, it has served as a warm home for the city's industrial workers. More than seven decades later, through urban planning, it has been transformed into a mixed-use community that preserves historical memory while offering modern services.
As the delegation walked through the neighborhood, they passed one amenity after another: a convenience commercial center, an affordable sports and health center, a restaurant, and subsidized rental housing. Inside a local Party-mass service center, some residents were dancing, while music drifted out into the hall. At the entrance, several scholars paused and, unable to resist, began clapping along to the beat.
"From the Shanghai Urban Planning Exhibition Center, I was able to observe how the state plans and envisions the development of the city; at Changbai 228, I was able to observe the results of that action from the perspective of the community and everyday life," Robalino told the Global Times. What intrigued her most was "how a planned intervention can become a space that does not feel rigid or imposed, but instead becomes a place for connection and coexistence." To her, the case revealed one of the less visible dimensions of public action: what happens after planning, during implementation, when public decisions become part of people's daily lives.
Escalante was equally struck by what Changbai 228 revealed about the CPC's people-centered philosophy. "What attracted my attention most at 228 was the close connection between urban renewal and the everyday well-being of residents," she said.
"Urban space should not be organized solely around commercial consumption. Changbai 228 includes commercial services, but it also has public and community spaces where people can meet, rest or take part in activities, without consumption necessarily being at the center of the experience." In Escalante's view, the CPC's people-centered approach had taken on tangible form. "Development should not be understood only in economic terms or in terms of economic gain, but also in terms of the people."
    Foreign tourists visit the Bund in Shanghai on August 17, 2026. Photo: VCG
An immersive understanding

Having visited China in person and seen firsthand how CPC policies are implemented in everyday life and put at the service of the people, these Latin American scholars with a strong interest in China gained a more immersive understanding of some of the Party's core concepts.
Several of the projects the scholars visited enabled them to observe how these concepts are translated into concrete policies and projects, Escalante said. She pointed to some terms often mentioned by the CPC and the Chinese government, such as "people-centered development," "common prosperity" and "Chinese modernization."
"People-centered development" means that development should not be measured solely by economic growth, infrastructure construction or technological progress, but also by its ability to improve people's livelihoods and quality of life, she added.
The scholar further pointed out that, "common prosperity" adds another layer to this vision: growth and modernization should benefit a broader swath of society, and development should help reduce social and regional inequalities. "What is the point of achieving high levels of economic growth or technological development if a significant part of the population is left outside its benefits?"
As for "Chinese modernization," Escalante described it as a modernization path suited to China's own historical, social and political conditions, rather than the assumption that there is only one universal model to follow.
"The leadership of the CPC is also explicitly presented as one of its central elements. From my perspective, the role of the Party is precisely one of the defining features of this process," she told the Global Times. "The Chinese government has considerable capacity to set long-term development goals, coordinate public policies and mobilize resources toward specific priorities. What interests me is how these broad ideas are translated - or are intended to be translated - into concrete policies, and what results they produce at different levels of society."
Cooperation amid challenges
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the launch of the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) Forum. Data show that in 2024 trade between China and Latin American and Caribbean countries exceeded $500 billion for the first time, more than 40 times that of the beginning of this century. In 2025, the figure climbed further to $549 billion. More than 20 Latin American countries had joined the Belt and Road cooperation framework, the Xinhua News Agency reported in May 2025.
Behind the numbers are scholars' observations and reflections. Escalante believes that one of the most practical and promising areas for cooperation between China and Latin America lies in sustainable urban transportation and its integration with new energy - including electric public transit, charging infrastructure, energy storage technologies, smart traffic management systems and shared mobility services. "These are particularly relevant areas for large Latin American cities that face problems such as congestion, pollution, unequal access to transportation and long commuting times," she said.
From the perspective of public administration, Robalino pointed to at least two areas where China and Latin America could find concrete opportunities for South-South cooperation.
"One is the exchange of experience on long-term planning, policy monitoring and strengthening implementation capacity; the other is public innovation," she told the Global Times. "It would be particularly interesting to exchange methodologies for experimentation, institutional learning and scaling up innovations."
When asked about the resurgence of "Monroe Doctrine" thinking in the US, Escalante did not evade the issue. "US influence and pressure on Latin America have a long history," she said. What worries her now, she added, is that the US government has once again publicly invoked the Monroe Doctrine, "which inevitably raises questions in Latin America about sovereignty and the capacity to make our own decisions."
At the same time, Escalante argued that it is too simplistic to explain Latin America's limited autonomy solely through external pressure. "Autonomy also depends on our own capacities. A country with strong institutions, a more diversified economy, lower levels of poverty and inequality, greater scientific and technological capabilities, and a long-term development strategy also has more room to decide with whom it wants to build relations and on what terms," she said.
Looking at Latin America, Escalante said one of the most important lessons from China's experience is the country's ability to define long-term goals and, above all, to translate them into concrete policies.
"Our countries have very different political systems, histories and social conditions, so this is not about copying the Chinese model," she told the Global Times. "However, we can reflect on the importance of building institutional systems that can plan, coordinate policies, ensure a certain degree of continuity and make public decisions truly take effect."
As the scholar put it, "China's experience can prompt Latin America to ask an important question: how do we build states with enough capacity to turn development goals into concrete and lasting improvements in people's lives?"
。这其中，蓝箭航天被视为“最接近SpaceX”的中国选手。蓝箭航空能否成为中国的SpaceX？本文将从技术路线、商业模式、资本加持和竞争压力四个方面进行分析。一、技术路线上，最难但是最匹配判定蓝箭航天能否对标SpaceX，首要标准在于技术路线。SpaceX的核心技术路线突破集中在三个层面，一是液氧甲烷全流量分级燃烧循环发动机（猛禽系列），二是垂直起降可回收火箭，三是超大运力。

二 | 这三点上，蓝箭航天在中国商业航天五小龙中独树一帜，与SpaceX最为匹配。

                                                                                                                                                                                             

技术维度	蓝箭航天	SpaceX
推进剂	液氧甲烷	液氧甲烷（星舰）
箭体材料	不锈钢	不锈钢（星舰）
回收方式	垂直起降	垂直起降
近地轨道运力（不回收）	21.3吨	22.8吨（猎鹰9号）
设计复用次数	20次	15-20次（猎鹰9号实际）
发动机循环方式	全流量分级燃烧	全流量分级燃烧（猛禽）

蓝箭航天是目前中国商业航天领域唯一坚持纯液氧甲烷路线并实现工程化应用的企业。其BF-20发动机采用全流量分级燃烧循环，海平面推力达224吨，2025年5月完成整机试车，直接对标SpaceX猛禽发动机的核心技术特征；朱雀三号直径4.5米，全箭长66.1米，通体采用不锈钢材料，与SpaceX星舰材料选择一致；近地轨道运力设计为一次性任务21.3吨，航区回收任务18.3吨，一级设计可重复使用不低于20次，技术路线与猎鹰9号同样高度一致。

三 | 尽管如此，技术路线的先进性，不等于工程化能力的成熟度。蓝箭航空所选择的液氧甲烷路线一定程度上缺乏可借鉴的成熟经验，仍需通过大量试验逐步摸索。在这一技术路线完全实现工程化成熟之前，蓝箭航空还必须要承受很长一段时间的高失败风险和高资本消耗。任何一次重大发射失败，都可能导致市场对其技术路线的信心动摇。二、商业模式上，造火箭只是起点如果技术路线解决的是能不能做的问题，商业模式解决的就是值不值得做的问题。SpaceX的核心不是火箭制造技术本身，而是其构建了从火箭制造到发射服务到卫星运营到终端应用的完整商业闭环。其星链星座截至2025年已在轨超7,000颗卫星，年收入预计达150亿美元，其发射任务中约70%为星链部署。这种"左手倒右手"的内部循环，使火箭发射从成本中心变为利润中心。在中国商业航天五小龙中，蓝箭航天具备构建类似闭环的潜力。

四 | 蓝箭旗下鸿擎科技主导的"鸿鹄-3"星座计划，拟在160个轨道平面部署共计10000颗低轨通信卫星，是中国首个民营万颗级卫星互联网项目。这种为自家火箭定制卫星的模式，与SpaceX的策略高度一致，通过抢占稀缺的低轨频轨资源，形成内部需求循环，帮助自身从硬件制造商向空天信息服务商拓展。然而就目前而言，要实现这一闭环并非易事。根据相关数据，蓝箭航天2025年上半年营收仅3643万元，其中97.96%仍来自单次火箭发射服务。

五 | "鸿鹄-3"在轨卫星数量为0颗，要实现从0到1的突破，需要数百亿元级别的资金投入，远超火箭研发的资本需求。此外，曾有投资人尖锐地指出，SpaceX星链的高估值得益于美国地广人稀、5G覆盖不足的场景，而中国完善的5G基础设施可能压缩卫星互联网的市场空间。加之国家队的GW星座（12,992颗）和千帆星座（15,000颗）在频轨资源、政府订单、标准制定上具有天然优势，在国家队星座加速组网的背景下，蓝箭航空鸿鹄-3的生存空间很有可能快速被压缩。未来若鸿鹄-3推进不及预期，蓝箭将回归单一发射服务商定位，发展前景将面临重估。

六 |

                                                                                                                                                                                             

商业模式维度	蓝箭航天	SpaceX
火箭制造	✓（朱雀系列）	✓（猎鹰/星舰）
发射服务	✓（少量订单）	✓（年均100+次）
卫星运营	△（鸿鹄-3规划中，0颗在轨）	✓（星链7,000+颗在轨）
终端应用	✗（暂无）	✓（星链终端+订阅服务）
年收入规模	~3,643万元（2025H1）	~150亿美元（星链2025预计）
自我造血能力	尚未形成	已形成

三、资本加持上，高估值不代表有耐心SpaceX在2002-2015年间累计亏损估计超过10亿美元，直至猎鹰9号回收成功、发射频次提升后才逐步实现盈利。蓝箭航天正在复制这条"高投入、长周期、高风险"的路径，但SpaceX长期处于一级市场，投资者以长期基金为主，对亏损容忍度较高；而蓝箭面对A股市场，中国的资本市场是否有足够的耐心？目前，中国商业航天正经历一轮资本狂热，狂热之下，基本面与估值背离严重，一定程度上影响着资本市场的信心。蓝箭航天IPO目标估值750亿元，但2025年上半年营收仅3,643万元，累计亏损超48亿元，三年半研发费用合计超22.90亿元，研发投入是营收的50倍以上。2025年12月8日，蓝箭航天递交上市申请前22天，其股东上海科慧将所持股份全部转让，套现2.61亿元。这种"临阵脱逃"的行为，折射出部分早期投资者对高估值可持续性的审慎态度。此外，2026年3月，蓝箭航天因"财务资料过有效期"一度中止审核，虽然属于程序性操作，但结合其高亏损、低收入的财务表现，监管机构对其持续经营能力的审视趋于严格。

七 | 四、竞争压力上，参与者多且窗口期短目前我国国家星座的组网需求迫切。2025年12月，中国一次性向ITU申报了20.3万颗卫星的频轨资源，而截至2025年底，GW星座在轨仅136颗，千帆星座仅108颗，占总体规划不足1%。按此预计，2026-2028年的发射需求预计年均50-100次，市场规模数百亿元。这也是为什么2026年被称为"中国可回收火箭量产元年"，10余款火箭同时冲刺可回收，技术验证的密度和竞争烈度前所未有。这也意味着马太效应将迅速显现，技术成熟度高、运力大、成本低、率先实现稳定回收复用的企业，将获取显著的先发优势，而技术验证失败或周期过长的企业，可能直接出局。对蓝箭航天而言，2026年朱雀三号回收试验是重中之重。若成功，将成为中国首家实现火箭垂直起降回收的民营企业，技术壁垒和估值基础将得到极大巩固；若再次失利，则为其竞争对手提供赶超窗口。

八 | 小结回到最初的问题，蓝箭航天会成为中国的SpaceX吗？从技术路线看，它是确实最接近的企业，从商业模式上看，它也迈出了关键一步，但从资本与现实的角度看，它仍正走在一条高风险的钢丝上，接下来的任何一次发射与回收都将至关重要。